Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin - Department of Social Sciences - Berlin Graduate School of Social Science

Cohort

BGSS Generation 2025

Title

Simulating Intergenerational Change:

A Microsimulation Approach for examining Homeownership trajectories

Supervisor

Prof. Dr. habil. Sabine Zinn, Director of Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), Member of the Executive Board Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. (DIW Berlin)

Abstract

The demographic circumstances of our upbringing shape the trajectory of our lives. Access to quality education, financial stability, and parental availability are well-established determinants of social mobility. Microsimulation allows for studying these developments by building synthetic populations and affords a unique ability to easily build counterfactual scenarios. Yet existing continuous-time microsimulation approaches have not adequately addressed the complexity of intergenerational transmission—the mechanisms through which advantages and disadvantages pass from one generation to the next.

This cumulative thesis develops a novel framework to fill this gap. Building on the R package MicSim, which already allows modelling vertical linkages (such as partnership) I introduce functionality to model horizontal intergenerational linkages, enabling parental attributes to directly influence children's life outcomes.
I apply this framework to examine intergenerational homeownership persistence through two critical lenses.

First, demographic change—declining birth and marriage rates—reshapes family structures and housing demand. Second, economic change—rising housing costs and shifting availability patterns between rural and urban areas—alters the affordability landscape. By simulating how these forces interact across generations, this research illuminates the pathways through which social inequalities are reproduced or disrupted.

Institution